Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • United Kingdom
  • France
  • Sweden
  • Netherlands
  • Ireland
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Slovenia
  • Switzerland
  • Austria
  • Croatia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,511$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(7.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,145.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(55,145.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,212$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,941.8}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,941.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,176$ on 2020-05-22

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $234,824$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(4.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{224,795.6}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(224,795.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,628$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(5.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,005.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(27,005.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,820$ on 2020-05-22

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $228,658$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(3.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,874.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(222,874.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,616$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(4.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,551.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(31,551.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,322$ on 2020-05-22

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $255,544$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263,726.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(263,726.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,475$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(3.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,492.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(35,492.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $217,927$ on 2020-05-22

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $182,015$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(2.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,339.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(179,339.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,218$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(3.94 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,184.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(27,184.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $89,811$ on 2020-05-22

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,809$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,293.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 56.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,293.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,925$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(345 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,967.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,967.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,913$ on 2020-05-22

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,088$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(6.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,227.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(44,227.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,807$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(836 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,722.1}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,722.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,107$ on 2020-05-22

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,506$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(2.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,211.3}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(24,211.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,592$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,581.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,581.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,854$ on 2020-05-22

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 98%
Switzerland recovered 94%
Austria recovered 91%
Croatia recovered 89%
Andorra recovered 88%
Germany recovered 83%
Slovakia recovered 79%
Denmark recovered 76%
Lithuania recovered 59%
Czechia recovered 54%
Italy recovered 45%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 39%
Serbia recovered 33%
Romania recovered 25%
San Marino recovered 23%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,468$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(461 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,453.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,453.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(19.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-05-22

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,707$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(7.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,943.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29,943.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,903$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(306 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,869.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,869.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $904$ on 2020-05-22

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,436$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(4.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,583.2}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15,583.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $635$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(124 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{627.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(627.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $796$ on 2020-05-22

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,243$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(398 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,175.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,175.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(12.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $133$ on 2020-05-22