Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $56,511$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(7.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,145.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(55,145.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,212$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,941.8}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,941.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,176$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $234,824$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(4.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{224,795.6}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(224,795.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,628$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(5.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,005.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(27,005.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $55,820$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $228,658$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(3.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,874.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(222,874.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,616$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(4.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,551.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(31,551.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,322$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $255,544$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263,726.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(263,726.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,475$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(3.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,492.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(35,492.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $217,927$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $182,015$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(2.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,339.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(179,339.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,218$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(3.94 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,184.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(27,184.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $89,811$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $32,809$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,293.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 56.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,293.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,925$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(345 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,967.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,967.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,913$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,088$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(6.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,227.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(44,227.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,807$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(836 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,722.1}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,722.1\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,107$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,506$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(2.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,211.3}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(24,211.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,592$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,581.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,581.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,854$ on 2020-05-22